Current Numbers the Matter- Week 1

There are so many things changing on just about a daily basis right now. People are asking a lot of questions about things ranging from everyday life, to big things like buying and selling real estate. Without looking at data, all I can tell you is what this all feels like, so I think this is a good time to pull some numbers and take a look at some data. As your trusted Real Estate Advisor, it is my goal to keep you informed and stay educated when it comes to your biggest asset, your home. Let’s take a look at these  numbers to understand current trends amidst this COVID-19 outbreak.

I pulled three different Whatcom County market areas: Bellingham, Ferndale, and Lynden. I felt this would give a good representation of the different markets my clients live in and would avoid making any sweeping observations.

Schools shut down on 3/12/20 and bars and restaurants closed for traditional service on 3/16/20 and HOMES CONTINUED TO SELL. Below is an accounting of all of the active listings on the market in each of these areas along with all of the sales that went under contract from 3/13/20 to 3/20/20 (pulled around Noon PST) and the percentage relationship between those numbers. As you can see, we have had quite a bit of sales activity over the last week. We can be certain that the historically low interest rates are fueling this demand. As of 3/17/20, the rate for a conventional, conforming loan was right around 3.5 – 3.65%.

All Active Listings Under Contract Sales

3/13/20-3/20/20

Under Contract 

Sales %

Bellingham 145 33 28%
Ferndale 90 12 13%
Lynden 37 8 22%

Below is a chart that reports the Average Days On Market (ADOM) for the homes that are currently active and the homes that went under contract over the last week. “Days on Market” is how long the home was active on the market before the sellers accepted an offer.  The ADOM for the homes that received offers over the last week were markedly shorter. What this tells us is that the homes that sold were newer to the market, well-presented, and appropriately priced. The longer market times for the actives indicate possible overpricing, as the average days on market for the month of February were 40 for Bellingham, 36 for Ferndale, and 36 for Lynden. This also shows a trend for March average days on market to be shorter than February.

Active Listings

Avg. Days on Market

Under Contract 

Sales

3/13/20-3/20/20

Avg. Days on Market

Difference in Days
Bellingham 82 11 71
Ferndale 83 19.5 63.5
Lynden 148 24 124

The last set of data that I pulled below is the average prices of the active listings and the average prices of the homes that went under contract last week. Since the under-contract sales have not published a closed sale price yet, we cannot take into consideration if there were any escalations above the list price. With the short ADOM and my personal experience on the front lines of multiple offers, I believe we will have some escalations reported once these sales close.

Active Listings

Average Price

Under Contract 

Sales

3/13/20-3/20/20

Average Price

% Difference
Bellingham $822,680 $487,224 -41%
Ferndale $598,398 $391,589 -35%
Lynden $448,580 $565,557 +13%

I am getting asked many times each day if this is still a good time to buy or sell. And I am continuing to conduct buyer and seller consultations.  The answer to this question is different for each person. What I can say with certainty is that I am committed to bringing current facts and statistics to our conversations, and answering your questions as best I can. I hope you found the above figures to be encouraging, I did! Real estate has cyclical trends and although the current economic shifts may be unsettling, we have weathered these cycles before. At this moment, record-low interest rates and low inventory are creating continued demand for homes, and from the figures reported, homes are going under contract. This is what I know today, and I felt it was worth sharing.

Please contact me with your questions and concerns, I am committed to help keep you informed!

Best Wishes!

Posted on April 8, 2020 at 4:53 pm
Tracie Gulit | Category: Market Updates, Tracie's Thoughts, Trends

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