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Housing & Economic Forecast 2024
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February Real Local Feature
HUMBLE BOUQUET
Laura is the Owner, Gardener and Floral Designer at Humble Bouquet. She creates seasonal florals for everyday deliveries, weddings and other special occasions from her studio in Bellingham, WA with all local flowers and her young children underfoot. She also teaches private and public floral workshops for small groups.
Laura Wheeler
www.humblebouquet.com
humblebouquet@gmail.com_wa
DESERT OASIS – Phoenix, AZ
Reservations & Information
4 Beds | 2 Bath | Sleeps 10
This beautifully updated, chic home is in a quiet neighborhood and boasts over 2,000 square feet of stylish living space. Enjoy the warm ambiance of the fireplace, or concoct a drink at the dry bar. In addition to this, your retreat offers ample room outdoors in a landscaped backyard with a private pool (pool heat can be added for an additional fee) along with two grills with a covered patio. You can also practice playing cornhole in the backyard or chipping around and putting the 4-hole putting green. This home is within walking distance to trails, 5 minutes to Paradise Valley, and 15 minutes to Scottsdale.
February Home Maintenance Tips
Regular home maintenance is essential for preserving the integrity and value of your property. Here are four key tips to keep your home in top condition.
- Change HVAC and furnace filters every 3 months. Changing HVAC and furnace filters is crucial for maintaining good indoor air quality and ensuring the efficient operation of your heating and cooling systems. Clogged filters can restrict airflow, leading to increased energy consumption and potential system malfunctions.
- Check for pests, especially around the foundation or any wood near ground level. This is essential for preventing infestations that can cause significant damage to your home’s structure. Regular inspections allow for early detection and prompt treatment, minimizing the risk of extensive repairs or infestation spread.
- Check for water damage around windows, pipes and foundation. Regularly checks is vital for identifying and addressing potential leaks or moisture issues promptly. Water damage can weaken structural components and promote mold growth, leading to costly repairs and health concerns if left unchecked.
- Landscaping clean up: Trimming shrubs, removing dead branches, and addressing weeds, not only enhances the aesthetic appeal of your property but also reduces fire hazards and minimizes the risk of falling branches or trees. Regular maintenance ensures a tidy and safe outdoor environment for your home.
January Real Local Feature
HUMBLE BOUQUET
Laura is the Owner, Gardener and Floral Designer at Humble Bouquet. She creates seasonal florals for everyday deliveries, weddings and other special occasions from her studio in Bellingham, WA with all local flowers and her young children underfoot. She also teaches private and public floral workshops for small groups.
Laura Wheeler
www.humblebouquet.com
humblebouquet@gmail.com_wa
DESERT OASIS – Phoenix, AZ
Reservations & Information
4 Beds | 2 Bath | Sleeps 10
This beautifully updated, chic home is in a quiet neighborhood and boasts over 2,000 square feet of stylish living space. Enjoy the warm ambiance of the fireplace, or concoct a drink at the dry bar. In addition to this, your retreat offers ample room outdoors in a landscaped backyard with a private pool (pool heat can be added for an additional fee) along with two grills with a covered patio. You can also practice playing cornhole in the backyard or chipping around and putting the 4-hole putting green. This home is within walking distance to trails, 5 minutes to Paradise Valley, and 15 minutes to Scottsdale.
HUMBLE BOUQUET
Laura is the Owner, Gardener and Floral Designer at Humble Bouquet. She creates seasonal florals for everyday deliveries, weddings and other special occasions from her studio in Bellingham, WA with all local flowers and her young children underfoot. She also teaches private and public floral workshops for small groups.
Laura Wheeler
www.humblebouquet.com
humblebouquet@gmail.com_wa
December Real Local Feature
LUXURIOUS ARIZONA RETREAT
Reservations & Information
4 Beds | 2.5 Bath | Sleeps 12
Welcome to Agave, your luxurious Arizona retreat in Paradise Valley, minutes from downtown Phoenix and Scottsdale’s vibrant offerings. This resort-like property seamlessly blends indoor and outdoor living, featuring a heated pool, hot tub, putting green, and an oversized cabana with a bar. The spacious interior features elegant décor and a fully stocked kitchen creating a perfect setting for relaxation and entertainment. The primary suite offers a king-sized bed, a gas fireplace, and a spa-like ensuite bathroom, while additional bedrooms cater to various preferences, including a bunk bed room for the young and young-at-heart. Safety and convenience are paramount, with child locks, a pool fence, and an in-home laundry room. Agave isn’t just a vacation home; it’s a five-star resort experience waiting to be enjoyed!
Perennial Design
Erica Egner is the owner of Perennial Style, an interior design studio specializing in design for short-term rentals. With over 20 years of experience in the graphic design industry, Erica found that her design knowledge allowed a natural transition into interior spaces. After renovating a 1970s cabin and becoming an Airbnb host herself, she became certified as a Short-Term Rental Stylist and now offers virtual design services and in-person staging to homeowners and property managers looking to curate spaces that entice guests and elevate profits.
Email: ericaegner@gmail.com
Phone: 940-594-7558
Website: www.perennial.style
IG: @perennialstyle_wa
Top 10 Predictions for 2024
As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data. With over 30 years of professional experience, he provides valuable insights into the real estate industry and housing market, including quarterly regional reports, monthly videos, and timely analysis of the latest trends.1 Still no housing bubbleThis was number one on my list last year and, so far, my forecast was spot on. The reason why I’m calling it out again is because the market performed better in 2023 than I expected. Continued price growth, combined with significantly higher mortgage rates, might suggest to some that the market will implode in 2024, but I find this implausible.2 Mortgage rates will drop, but not quicklyThe U.S. economy has been remarkably resilient, which has led the Federal Reserve to indicate that they will keep mortgage rates higher for longer to tame inflation. But data shows inflation and the broader economy are starting to slow, which should allow mortgage rates to ease in 2024. That said, I think rates will only fall to around 6% by the end of the year.3 Listing activity will rise modestlyAlthough I expect a modest increase in listing activity in 2024, many homeowners will be hesitant to sell and lose their current mortgage rate. The latest data shows 80% of mortgaged homeowners in the U.S. have rates at or below 5%. Although they may not be inclined to sell right now, when rates fall to within 1.5% of their current rate, some will be motivated to move.4 Home prices will rise, but not muchWhile many forecasters said home prices would fall in 2023, that was not the case, as the lack of inventory propped up home values. Given that it’s unlikely that there will be a significant increase in the number of homes for sale, I don’t expect prices to drop in 2024. However, growth will be a very modest 1%, which is the lowest pace seen for many years, but growth all the same.5 Home values in markets that crashed will recoverDuring the pandemic, there were a number of more affordable markets across the country that experienced significant price increases, followed by price declines post-pandemic. I expected home prices in those areas to take longer to recover than the rest of the nation, but I’m surprised by how quickly they have started to grow, with most markets having either matched their historic highs or getting close to it – even in the face of very high borrowing costs. In 2024, I expect prices to match or exceed their 2022 highs in the vast majority of metro areas across the country.6 New construction will gain market shareAlthough new construction remains tepid, builders are benefiting from the lack of supply in the resale market and are taking a greater share of listings. While this might sound like a positive for builders, it’s coming at a cost through lower list prices and increased incentives such as mortgage rate buy-downs. Although material costs have softened, it will remain very hard for builders to deliver enough housing to meet the demand.7 Housing affordability will get worseWith home prices continuing to rise and the pace of borrowing costs far exceeding income growth, affordability will likely erode further in 2024. For affordability to improve, it would require either a significant drop in home values, a significant drop in mortgage rates, a significant increase in household incomes, or some combination of the three. But I’m afraid this is very unlikely. First-time home buyers will be the hardest hit by this continued lack of affordable housing.8 Government needs to continue taking housing seriouslyThe government has started to take housing and affordability more seriously, with several states already having adopted new land use policies aimed at releasing developable land. In 2024, I hope cities and counties will continue to ease their restrictive land use policies. I also hope they’ll continue to streamline the permitting process and reduce the fees that are charged to builders, as these costs are passed directly onto the home buyer, which further impacts affordability.9 Foreclosure activity won’t impact the marketMany expected that the end of forbearance would bring a veritable tsunami of homes to market, but that didn’t happen. At its peak, almost 1-in-10 homes in America were in the program, but that has fallen to below 1%. That said, foreclosure starts have picked up, but still remain well below pre-pandemic levels. Look for delinquency levels to continue rising in 2024, but they will only be returning to the long-term average and are not a cause for concern.10 Sales will rise but remain the lowest in 15 years2023 will likely be remembered as the year when home sales were the lowest since the housing bubble burst in 2008. I expect the number of homes for sale to improve modestly in 2024 which, combined with mortgage rates trending lower, should result in about 4.4 million home sales. Ultimately though, demand exceeding supply will mean that sellers will still have the upper hand.
Thank You: Thanksgiving Blessings
I’d like to give a heartfelt thank you to all the generous souls who joined hands in making Tracie Gulit Homes Thanksgiving Food Drive an overwhelming success this year! Through your kindness and generosity, we were able to crowdfund a total of 18 full Thanksgiving meals, complete with special additions like Martinelli’s and a beautiful poinsettia, to bring joy and warmth to Lynden families in need. Your contributions have not only filled plates but also hearts, creating a ripple of positivity in our community. This Thanksgiving, your selflessness has truly made a difference, demonstrating the power of unity and compassion. Thank you for being the driving force behind this incredible initiative and for making the holiday season brighter for those who needed it the most.
October Real Local Feature
Waterfront Home Steps From The Beach – Birch Bay, WA
CLICK HERE FOR RESERVATIONS AND MORE INFORMATION
3 Bed | 2 Bath | Sleeps 6
This locally run Airbnb’s property has been in the family for over 80 years with the home built in 2008. It’s proudly managed by Don & Linda as well as their two daughters, Laura and Kristin.Come escape to this beautiful, fully furnished, waterfront home located in Birch Bay. Ideal for relaxing with family or a romantic retreat. With windows overlooking the water, the views from inside the house are only rivaled by the outside view and the sound of the water. Luckily, your commute to the water is short as the beach is across the street. With miles of the best beachcombing in the PNW, you’ll find it easy to fill your days chasing the tide, walking on the beach or watching the storms.
They offer a 25% discount for bookings that are 7+ days. The discount will be applied automatically.
MaryGold Tales
MaryGold Tales is a whimsical watercolor stationery and paper goods business, where Mary hand-paints sweet greeting cards and other bespoke illustrations. Nestled in her studio in Ferndale, Washington, Mary creates bespoke home illustrations and custom stationery.
hello@marygoldtales.com
www.marygoldtales.com
@marygold.tales
Receive 10% off on her website: THANKYOU10
7 Myths About VA Loans…Busted
There are a lot of myths swirling around about VA loans, so before you believe everything you hear, take some time to look into the facts about your benefit. Please reach out if you have any questions. I can put you in touch with one of the great lenders I work with if you’re looking for more details on your loan options.
MYTH 1: Only combat veterans are eligible.
FACT: Veterans, active duty servicemembers, reservists, National Guard members, surviving spouses, and other individuals can earn eligibility for home loan benefits. You may be eligible if you are a(n): Military Veteran, Active-Duty service member, Reservist or National Guard member, Surviving Spouse, Academy Cadet or Midshipman, National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Officer, Public Health Service (PHS) Officer.
MYTH 2: You need perfect credit to be approved.
FACT: While the VA encourages approved lenders to provide VA loans to all qualified applicants, it does not describe a minimum credit score. Each lender has its own credit requirements, which they use to verify that borrowers meet the ability to repay the loan. Lenders are expected to use good judgement and flexibility when applying the VA’s underwriting recommendations for credit, debt, and income. Typically, a score in the 620s or better is needed to apply for a VA loan.
MYTH 3: You can only use the VA home loan benefits once.
FACT: If you earn a VA home loan benefit it is yours for life. Many Veterans use it again and again for their home financing needs. Depending on the value of each property you buy, you may or may not need to restore entitlement to reuse your benefit. As long as you have enough entilement to back your loan, a VA loan can be a great mortgage choice for all stage of life.
MYTH 4: VA loans have a higher interest rate.
FACT: VA loan interest rates are usually as low or lower than competitive rates on conventional loans..
MYTH 5: VA home loan benefits are only for purchasing single-family homes.
FACT: VA loans can be used for: single-family houses, a condominium unit in a VA-approved complex, a multi-family property (up to 4 units per VA-eligible borrower), building a home, buying & improving property, making energy efficient improvements, buying a manufactured home and/or lot (certain lenders), refinancing your VA loan for a lower rate or payment, cash-out or regular refinance your VA or non-VA home.
MYTH 6: VA loans have unexpected out-of-pocket costs.
FACT: In fact, VA loans are known for their benefits, including no pricate mortgage insurance (PMI) and, in most cases, zero down payments. As far as other out-of-pocket costs go, you should recieve a Good Faith Estimate from your lender. And there should be no surprise fees at closing time. You can expect to pay a VA funding fee (unless exempt), an appraisal fee, an origination fee, title fees and some other cost approved by the VA.
MYTH 7: VA occupancy rule is too hard for active duty serving overseas
FACT: VA requires owner occupancy within a reasonable time after closing – usually 60 days. But those serving away on active duty can recieve an extension of up to 12 months if needed. If the active duty member still can’t satisfy the rule, a spouse or dependant child can.
Law Changes Benefitting You
On January 1, 2024, major changes to the Law of Agency will go into effect. These changes result from the real estate industry in the state of Washington wanting to elevate the level of transparency and consumer protection surrounding buyer representation. Senate Bill 5191 was voted into law requiring adjustments in how brokers operate when working with buyers.Before I get into the details of the specific changes below, I wanted to explain why these changes are being made and the benefits. It has been a long time coming for the buyer side of a transaction to be better defined in regards to representation, compensation, and the level of commitment the buyer and broker have to each other.The seller side of a transaction has always required a separate contract (a Listing Agreement) that outlines these three important items. It has always been a bit shocking to me that the state did not require such a contract for a buyer and broker. We will have a new required contract (Buyer Brokerage Service Agreement, BBSA) that is based on the new law starting in January. This new contract will provide a consistent and professional guidepost to help everyone understand the buyer and broker relationship, just like a seller and broker do when they enter into a listing agreement.The opportunity to set level expectations through this new agreement and give both parties the choice to willingly agree to them will help buyers understand how their broker gets paid, cover industry norms, dig into who represents who and where that advocacy starts and ends, and communicates a transparent commitment to each other. I think this is powerful and meaningful for both buyers and brokers. Buying a home is a serious matter and outlining via a contract what is mandated by state law legitimizes the relationship for both sides. Most importantly, it is a choice of who the buyer and broker enter into a contract with. The conversations that will surround these choices will be empowering for all parties involved.Let’s face it, buying a house is not an easy task, nor is guiding someone successfully through the process. It is about time the law follows the call of duty and requires a clear explanation of how buyer representation works and encourages a clearly communicated partnership. I’ve always believed that having consistent processes in my business leads to a better outcome for my clients. This advancement for our industry will elevate these processes and in turn, raise the bar.If you’ve worked with me recently, you know I’ve already embraced these cahnges as I see them as a benefit to my clients and our industry. The clarity these agreements provide will lead to fewer surprises, stronger bonds, and higher efficiency. I am prepared and excited to embrace this as a benefit for all parties involved in a real estate transaction.Key RevisionsFor years, real estate brokerage firms were only required to enter into written agreements with sellers, not buyers. Beginning on January 1, 2024, the Agency Law will require firms to enter into a written “brokerage services agreement” with any party the firm represents, both sellers and buyers. This change is to ensure that buyers (in addition to sellers) clearly understand the terms of the firm’s representation and compensation. The services agreement with buyers must include:
- The term of the agreement (how long the buyer and broker are committed to working together);
- The name of the broker appointed to be the buyer’s agent;
- Whether the agency relationship is exclusive or non-exclusive;
- Whether the buyer consents to the individual broker representing both the buyer and the seller in the same transaction (referred to as “limited dual agency”);
- Whether the buyer consents to the broker’s designated broker/managing broker’s limited dual agency;
- The amount the firm will be compensated and who will pay the compensation; and
- Any other agreements between the parties.
All of these options are outlined in the new BBSA contract and will be presented and discussed before deciding to embark on the home-buying journey together. It will eliminate any guesswork and encourage a strong work relationship surrounding an incredibly important task. This will help my clients understand my level of commitment and professionalism, and how I help my clients achieve effective results.I have provided the links to the new Agency Pamphlet and the revisions to Senate Bill 5191 below for your review. If you have any questions or are thinking about making a purchase in 2024, please reach out. It is always my goal to help keep my clients well-informed and empower strong decisions. I am happy to bring this information to you ahead of the change, so you are well prepared should you have any real estate changes coming your way in the future.Revised Pamphlet. The pamphlet entitled “Real Estate Brokerage in Washington” provides an overview of the revised Agency Law.Revised Agency Law. Substitute Senate Bill 5191 sets forth the revised Agency Law in its entirety.
