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Whatcom Holiday Fun Guide
Whatcom County does Holiday Cheer well and there’s no better way to get into the Holiday Spirit than attending a community event. Here’s a list of all things Holiday fun and I hope you will find a few to enjoy!
▪ First Friday Art Walk is 5-9 p.m. Friday, Dec. 3, in downtown Bellingham.
▪ Ferndale’s Holiday Tree Lighting Ceremony is 4-6 p.m. Friday, Dec. 3, at Centennial Riverwalk Park, 5667 Front Ave., Ferndale.
▪ Blaine’s Community Tree Lighting at 4:30 p.m. Friday, Dec. 3, at Blaine’s G Street Plaza. Santa arrives at 4:45 p.m. and free horse and carriage rides at 5-7 p.m.
▪ Ferndale Heritage Society’s “Olde Fashioned Christmas” is 4-9 p.m. Friday-Saturday Dec. 3-4, at Pioneer Village in Pioneer Park, 2004 Cherry St., Ferndale. “The Lights and Sounds of Christmas” is the theme for the decorated cabins. Adult admission is $5, children $3.
▪ The Bellingham Yacht Club’s annual Lighted Boat Parade starts at 5:30 p.m. Saturday, Dec. 4, weather permitting. Best views are from Boulevard Park and the Fairhaven Cruise Terminal.
▪ Holiday Port Quest is 2-6 p.m. Saturday, Dec. 4, at port parks, offering families the opportunity to find a festive hidden treasure, enjoy carolers, food trucks, and a visit by Santa and Mrs. Claus. Find hints for the treasure hunt on the port’s social media Dec. 4.
▪ View Santa’s Workshop 6-8 p.m. Friday, Saturday and Sunday Dec. 3-5 on the waterside of the Bellingham Cruise Terminal, 355 Harris Ave.
▪ Northwest Lighted Christmas Parade is 6-7 p.m. Saturday, Dec. 4, starting at Fairway Center along Front Street throughout downtown Lynden.
▪ Breakfast with Sinterklaas, the Dutch figure based on Saint Nicholas, 9-11 a.m. Saturday, Dec. 4, at the Lynden Community/Senior Center, 401 Grover St, Lynden.
▪ Pictures with Sinterklaas, 2-4 p.m. Saturday, Dec. 4, at Fairway Center, 1750 Front St, Lynden.
▪ Bellingham’s tree lighting ceremony is at 5:30 p.m. Saturday, Dec. 4, at Depot Market Square, 1100 Railroad Ave.
▪ Lighted Christmas Stroll Through Pioneer Village is free from 5-8 p.m. Friday-Saturday, Dec. 10-11 and Dec. 17-18 at Pioneer Village in Pioneer Park, 2004 Cherry St., Ferndale.
▪ Bellingham Lighted Bike Parade will be held 5-7 p.m. Saturday, Dec. 11. Riders start at 5:30 p.m. at 14th Street and Larrabee Avenue to circle Fairhaven and at Depot Market Square to the Fairhaven Village Green. You can register to ride online.
▪ Visit Santa at 1-4 p.m. Saturday, Dec. 18, in Boundary Bay’s outdoor “Candy Cane Lane” next to the beer garden at 1107 Railroad Ave. Masks required for a picture on Santa’s lap.
▪ Ring of Fire and Hope starts at 7 p.m. Friday, Dec. 31, along Birch Bay beaches. The Birch Bay Chamber of Commerce has a limited number of biodegradable road flares beginning at 9 a.m. at 7900 Birch Bay Drive, Blaine.
▪ Polar Bear Plunge in Birch Bay is Saturday, Jan. 1, 2022. It will mark the 39th annual celebration.
If you attend one of these community events I would love for you to tag me on Social Media so I can share your holiday cheer!
Happy Holidays friends!
The Zillow Algorithm vs The Human Algorithm: What is best for the consumer?
The recent news of Zillow’s plan to shut down their iBuyer program due to a $328 million loss in the third quarter has heads spinning in the real estate world and on Wall Street. Sadly, Zillow plans to eliminate 25% of its workforce because of its decision to move away from the practice of purchasing and re-selling homes due to their mismanagement of property price evaluations. “Fundamentally, we have been unable to predict the future pricing of homes to a level of accuracy that makes this a safe business to be in,” Zillow CEO Rich Barton.
This is a bold statement from a CEO who built their company on a computer algorithm that spits out a home value called, the Zestimate. A Zestimate is an AVM (Automated Valuation Model). The product of an automated valuation technology comes from analysis of public record data and computer decision logic combined to provide a calculated estimate of a probable selling price of a residential property. An AVM generally uses a combination of two types of evaluation, a hedonic model and a repeat sales index. The results of each are weighted, analyzed, and then reported as a final estimate of value based on a requested date.
Zillow’s iBuyer program sought to find eager home sellers who wanted a quick, no-nonsense sale. They would present a cash offer based on their algorithm and close on a mutually agreed-upon date. After closing, Zillow would turn these properties around with some improvements and bring them back to the market. This is often labeled a “flip”. The problem was Zillow overpaid for the majority of their purchases which proved that their computer-generated evaluation (AVM) lacks market accuracy.
On average, they re-sold these homes for $80,800 less than what they purchased them for. Thorough market research that includes touring the subject and neighboring properties, seeking info from other brokers about the terms of recent sales and overall experience helps to determine accurate market conditions in comparison to the swirl of data used to establish the Zestimate. Computers can’t do this type of in-depth research, nor do they have the instinct to predict shifts in the market, but humans (real estate brokers) can!
Often times when I am talking with potential sellers, their Zestimate (or other AVMs) come up in the overall conversation. I understand why, too. This is information that is relatively easy to access and gives the seller a starting point on the value of their home. Where an AVM can become dangerous is when a consumer thinks it’s the be-all, end-all. Even worse, when a consumer makes a major financial decision solely based on this information. According to Zillow, 39% of all Zestimates in the Seattle metro area are not within 5% of the actual value. In fact, they publish an accuracy report that you can access here.
In October, the median home price in the Seattle Metro area was $850,000. With 39% of all Zestimates not within 5% of the actual value, that is a beginning margin of error of $42,500! Further, they claim that 82% of their Zestimates are within 10% of the actual value, which is a marked difference – up to $85,000. Where AVMs are incomplete is that the basis of their formula is tax records, which in my experience are often inaccurate. Also, and most importantly, an AVM does not take into consideration the condition of the home, the neighborhood, and other environmental impacts such as school district, road noise, and unsightly neighboring homes, to name a few.
So why does the Zestimate exist? Zillow is a publicly-traded company (ZG) and their website is the vehicle to create profit. The Zestimate drives consumers to the website who are often dipping their toes in the pool to see what their home might be worth or searching available homes for sale. When a consumer is searching on Zillow’s website they are surrounded by real estate broker and mortgage broker ads on every page. These real estate brokers and mortgage brokers are paying for that advertising space, which is how Zillow makes its money and why there is a Zestimate. The Zestimate is not a public service, it is a widget to bring eyes to their advertising space which in turn, sells more ads to brokers looking for leads.
The moral of the story is this: use Zillow as one of the many tools in your real estate evaluation and search toolbox. Zillow provides a great starting point and contains a ton of information to whet your palate when embarking on a real estate endeavor. However, we live in a time of information overload and we are overstimulated at best. Nothing beats the evaluation and discernment of a knowledgeable and experienced real estate broker to help you determine accuracy, which will lead to the empowerment of clarity. At Windermere, we like to call this, The Human Algorithm.
If you are curious about the value of your home in today’s market, please contact me. I can provide an annual real estate review of all of your real estate holdings, and can even dive deep into a complete comparative market analysis if you would find that helpful. It is my goal to help keep my clients informed and empower strong decisions.
Zillow® and Zestimate® are trademarks of Zillow, Inc.
Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist at Windermere and a sought-after expert on real estate, both locally and across the country. Every quarter, Matthew breaks down the real estate market by region and provides the Gardner Report; you can read this quarter’s full report here.
If you have any questions or curiosity about the current real estate market that you would like to discuss, please reach out. Are you curious about the value of your home, are you contemplating a move, or considering a new purchase? I can help! It is always my goal to help empower my clients to make strong financial decisions and to help them understand how real estate can positively affect their lifestyle.
Santa Event!
We are excited to bring Santa back for our annual holiday photo event! New this year, Santa will be socially distanced, contact-free, and photos will be by appointment only.
Save the date for Sunday, November 28th for complimentary professional Santa photos! Follow the link below to secure your timeslot- Spots are limited, so be sure to save your spot you don’t miss out!
Everyone is welcome, no matter what your family looks like kids, pets, friends, or just you! This is a wonderful opportunity to have some beautiful photos, and I hope to see you there.
Happy Holidays!
We will also be collecting nonperishable food and cash donations for our local food banks. Donations or cash are not required, but are appreciated!
Visit Maewood Haven & Take in the Beauty of Mt. Baker
As you may have seen on social media, my husband and I recently purchased a cute little cabin up in Glacier’s Snowline Community. We have been working all summer to repair and remodel the cabin along with designing the interior and prepping it to become an Airbnb this coming winter. After a lot of time and hard work, we are excited to introduce you to, Maewood Haven! Nestled at the base of Mt. Baker, Maewood Haven is a modern, rustic retreat and will not only be a place for our family to get away but will also serve as a retreat for those who want to explore the North Cascade Mountains.
If you’ve never visited- Mt. Baker National Forest is the ultimate local escape- less than an hour outside Bellingham. There you will find glacier-covered peaks, spectacular mountain meadows, and enchanting old-growth forests. With endless hiking trails, unmatched ski slopes (Mt. Baker holds the record for most snowfall in a single season) there are endless ways to fill your days! There are also a handful of yummy restaurants for when you need to take a rest.
We would love to share with you all of our hard work. Get in touch if you would like to plan a visit to Maewood Haven- we can’t wait to host you!
QUARTERLY REPORTS Q3 2021
As we start the fourth quarter of 2021, homeowners are sitting on top of a heap of appreciation. Annual median price growth has been unprecedented. Pandemic-driven moves, historically low interest rates, and limited inventory have all played into this phenomenon.
The third quarter saw price growth start to level out as many sellers have stair-stepped their pricing up based on growth in the first half of the year. That has reduced the average list-to-sale price ratios compared to the spring market; however, the average is still over list price. Days on market have also inched up, but continue to be brisk. Inventory has increased some as we find ourselves settling into fall, but demand still abounds with many buyers eager to secure a low interest rate.
You can always count on me to keep you well informed. I am a committed student of the market who continually researches the trends and understands the value of sharing this knowledge to empower strong decisions. Please reach out anytime, it is my pleasure to get your questions answered or help you embark on your next move.
Triangle of Buyer Clarity
Embarking on a home purchase in a seller’s market can be intimidating, but it can be done. Long-term price growth confirms that owning a home is a key element to building household wealth. Home equity gained over time is typically the largest asset that contributes to a household’s net worth. Homeownership is not only an investment, but also provides shelter and fits the lifestyle needs of the owner. We have seen many lifestyle-driven moves during the pandemic highlighting the value of location and features for buyers. Also, with the advent of remote work, many buyers have been able to be more flexible in determining their top locations. This has contributed to stronger price growth in suburban and rural locations.
Buyers having a well-thought-out plan is paramount to finding success in today’s market. Partnering with their broker to assess their budget and how it relates to the location(s) and features they desire is the strategic formula that helps a buyer gain clarity. Buyer clarity is what leads a buyer to be able to make a sound decision to offer on a home. If a buyer is not clear, they will not be empowered to make a decision; in turn elongating the process and costing them more money. We have seen intense price growth since the beginning of the year illustrating the cost of waiting. In Whatcom County median price is up 12% year-over-year and up 16% in Skagit County.
The tool that I use to help a buyer determine a productive search for their new home is The Triangle of Buyer Clarity. It is an expert tool for a buyer to help determine the parameters of their home search in order to save them time and money. The relationship between Price, Location, and Features/Condition is paramount in helping a buyer gain clarity and efficiency in their search.
Helping buyers stay focused on the reality of what their budget can afford them by applying The Triangle is an effective tool. For instance, if a buyer is set on a turn-key home that requires minimal updates, they may have to go up in price or further out in location, or both. The sides of the Triangle are often adjusted to make an uneven triangle, resulting in an effective home search and a successful purchase. An equilateral triangle is like a unicorn; buyers often have to adjust at least one side of the triangle to match the market with their ability to perform. Now here’s the geometry lesson: a buyer will often start the process with an equilateral triangle in mind, but will find success with either an isosceles (two equal sides) or a scalene (no equal sides) triangle. The moral of the geometry lesson is we have to be willing to compromise.
Understanding that compromise is OK and that it is actually a tool is when a buyer gains the clarity they need to successfully move forward. This is even further nuanced when two people are buying a home together; the adjustments must be done as a team. A skilled broker is well-versed in helping guide this process and making sure each participant is being heard and hearing each other. At the end of the day, real estate is a relationship business, and effectively curating this process is dependent on trust and care.
Helping buyers find their next home is one of the most joy-filled activities I have the honor of being a part of. It may appear simple, but it is not. The crucial conversations, contemplation, and planning that happen in order to find success are intentional. Taking the time upfront to analyze my buyers’ goals instead of just jumping in the car and starting to look at homes is a responsible part of my process that builds trust and effectively leads to success. It is my goal to help keep my clients well informed in order to empower thoughtful decisions. If you have any questions about the market or you’re ready to dive in, please reach out.
2021 Year-to-Date Real Estate Market Review
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, the 2021 real estate market has been a head-turner! In the second half of 2020, once we started to emerge from the COVID lockdown, the real estate market started to bustle with activity. 2020 ended up being a robust real estate year driven by low interest rates and many COVID-influenced moves due to remote working and retirement. Who would have thought a global pandemic would have such a profound effect on the demand for real estate? Many people decided to retire and exit the state, many people entered our state and exited another, and a large portion of buyers who were no longer anchored by their commute followed their hearts to the suburbs and more rural locations.
When the calendar turned to 2021 the real estate market exploded! Inventory was depleted as 2020 did not provide the normal amount of new listings in tandem with a jump in demand. This combination created price escalations in 2021 that were beyond our wildest imagination. The price points for neighborhoods were re-established almost overnight with benchmark sales elevating the value proposition for the communities in which we live.
Seasonality has always had an effect on the market even in 2021. The first quarter of the year typically has the lowest amount of Seasonality has always had an effect on the market, even in 2021. The first quarter of the year typically has the lowest amount of new listings as sellers make their way out of the short, dark days with soggy yards and projects on their to-do lists to prepare their properties for the spring market. The homes that sold in Q1 2021 saw above-normal gains over the list price. In fact, in Whatcom and Skagit County, the average list-to-sale price ratio in January was 100%. As I mentioned earlier, almost overnight price appreciation established new home values for our communities.
Once the seasonal spring listings started to show themselves and buyers had additional selection, the price gains actually increased! The classic law of supply and demand relates the amount of supply against the amount of demand, and in turn provides a value. In the case of the 2021 spring market, the increase in supply actually was not enough to meet demand and put upward pressure on prices. Recorded sales from March to June saw the highest list-to-sale price ratios peaking at 104% on average in April, May and June in Whatcom County and at 104% in April in Skagit County.
Since January the median price in Whatcom County has increased by 12% and in Skagit County by 16%. So far this year the highest price in Whatcom County was just last month in August with the median price at $565,000 and in June peaked in in Skagit County at $528,000. Both counties are sitting on top of a heap of price growth since the first of the year. Historically, markets will peak in the late spring, early summer as the ceiling of pricing starts to find itself. That appears to be where we are at in Skagit and may be where we find ourselves in Whatcom in the Fall.
There is also this illusion that this type of market environment is easy. Yes, sales happen quickly and demand is high. I would be a fool to say that a sign in the yard and a feature on the internet couldn’t likely get a home sold. I must point out though that this market is nuanced and that obtaining the best results (top dollar and a smooth process) depends on how well all the steps are taken to prepare a property, price-position a property, and how carefully the negotiations and multiple offers are handled along the way by the broker. My office, Windermere North has continued to outperform the market in 2021 with shorter days on market and a higher list-to-sale price ratio than the market average. Check out our YTD comparison to the market averages to help understand how this elevated level of service makes a tangible difference for our clients.
As we head into fall and start to round out 2021, new homes that are coming to market are standing on the shoulders of the sales that took place earlier this year which created these increased home value levels. List-to-sale price ratios are starting to decrease as sellers are stair-stepping their pricing based on the freshly recorded home sales and the market is finding its peak for the year. Sellers that expect to stair-step and to escalate like homes did earlier in the year may find themselves disappointed and overpriced.
We are starting to see market times increase and expect a small surge in fall listings to help satisfy the buyer demand that remains. Low interest rates continue to provide buyers the flexibility to make moves with minimal debt service. As long as rates remain low, demand will continue. The good news is, not every home sale is a multiple-offer frenzy like we saw at the beginning of 2021. The new normal has established itself and buyers are becoming more savvy navigating this market. In my next newsletter, I will outline some expert buyer tools that have helped buyers succeed in this market.
The remainder of 2021 should complete a banner year in real estate. Sellers have made amazing returns and buyers are obtaining homes that better match their lifestyle goals with low debt service. COVID shook up how we value where we live. Remote work increased the value of our suburbs, retirees pushed prices in rural locations, and people having more time to reflect, shifted how they prioritize their homes’ features. Some folks even “got out” of Washington, but it wasn’t a mass exodus, as just as many are leaving other states for ours.
I see this last year and a half as a re-organization of our communities through housing, which comes with some positives and some negatives. Change can be uncomfortable, but change is certain. 2021 has been a year unlike any other! Seasonality, research, and relationships have been the stable markers that have helped me help my clients find success in this new environment and have helped me navigate some occasional choppy waters along the way. It is always my goal to help keep my clients well informed and empower strong decisions. Please reach out if you’d like to learn more about how the current market relates to your goals. If you know of anyone who needs real estate help, I would be honored to help take care of them as well.
All of us at Windermere Real Estate are proud to kick off another season as the “Official Real Estate Company of the Seattle Seahawks.” Since 2016, we’ve partnered with the Seahawks to #TackleHomelessness by donating $100 for every Seahawks defensive tackle made in a home game. And for the third season in a row, the money raised will go to Mary’s Place, a non-profit organization dedicated to supporting homeless families in the greater Seattle area. Mary’s Place works to provide safe and inclusive shelter and services that support women, children, and families through their journey out of homelessness.
Mary’s Place’s mission and the work of the Windermere Foundation go hand-in hand. At the last home game, we were able to donate $6,300, which brought our #TackleHomelessness total to $166,600 adding to our donations over the past five seasons. We look forward to raising even more this year!
Go Hawks!
Newsletter – Q2 Gardner Report & Summer Food Drive Recap
At Windermere, we are fortunate to have Matthew Gardner as our Chief Economist. In fact, we are one of the only real estate companies in the country to have such a well-respected expert sitting in this role. Not only is Matthew an asset to Windermere brokers and their clients, but he is a coveted resource within the industry. He is often called upon by major media outlets and industry think tanks for his insights.
Every quarter Matthew produces The Gardner Report which re-caps various statistics and predictions for all of Western Washington. What is so great about this is you can read about where you live and also get a glimpse into other markets that may pique your interest.
Read the full Western Washington report here. Additionally, since Windermere spans the entire Western Region of the United States, he also provides this same report for Washington (Western, Central & Eastern), Oregon, Idaho, California (Southern & Northern), Utah, Colorado, Nevada, and Hawaii (Maui & the Big Island).
There has been a lot of state-to-state moves over the last few years. Many of these moves have been prompted by retirement, second home purchases, and remote working due to COVID changes to the workforce. This is a great way to research other markets you may be interested in. Also, I am connected to the Windermere network of brokers and can easily find you a reputable broker who would be a stellar match for your real estate needs outside of my normal market area.
Further, I am also a part of a national and international network of real estate companies for referrals outside of the Windermere footprint. This is through Windermere’s affiliation with Leading Real Estate Companies of the World. Bottom line, I can help provide information and can help align you with a trusted real estate advisor anywhere in the world. Please reach out of I can help!
Huge thanks to everyone who donated to my office’s Summer Food Drive! Collectively we provided 2,608 meals for our neighbors in need! We presented a check for $3,400 and 888 pounds of food to the Volunteers of America Western Washington food banks last week, and that’s all because of you! Thank you!
8 Ways to Make Back to School Easier
The first day of school sneaks up so fast… summer is here and then gone in a flash! Whether your child is anxious or excited about the start of a more “normal” school year, here are some practical tips to help start things off on the right foot.
Start talking about it. New teacher, new classmates, new schedules can all create some anxieties with kids. Start talking about school a few weeks before the first day. Talk about practical things like what the new schedule will be like and what the school’s COVID policies are, but also make sure to address their feelings and concerns about the upcoming year.
Go back to school shopping early. Take advantage of your summer schedule to shop while the store isn’t as busy and the supplies haven’t been picked through. Don’t forget to buy extras for homework time or the winter re-stock that inevitably happens in January.
If you have the means to, also consider reaching out to your child’s teacher and ask if they have a Wish List that you can help with. Most teachers have very real material needs that go beyond their classroom supply lists, and now more than ever, our teachers need our kindness, our support and our advocacy.
Determine how your child will get to and from school and practice the route.
Ease back into the scheduled days. When you and your kids are used to lazy mornings and staying up late, shifting to the early morning school bus rush can be incredibly difficult. To ease the transition, start 7-10 days before school starts, and shift bedtimes and wake-up times gradually. Every day, start their bedtime routine 10-15 minutes earlier and wake them up 10-15 minutes earlier until they’re back on track. And don’t forget to readjust your bedtime schedules, too!
Re-set eating habits. When school starts, your student’s eating patterns need to maintain a high level of energy throughout the day. Implementing a routine for breakfast, lunch and snacks is just as important as their sleeping patterns. Begin this transition 7-10 days before school starts as well.
Sync your calendars. Add the school calendar to your personal/family calendar, so important dates like parent-teacher night aren’t missed.
Set rules for after school. After-school time and activities such as TV, video games, play time, and the completion of homework should be well-thought out in advance. Talk about the rules (and consequences) for these before school starts.
Prioritize mental health. Encourage your child to speak up if they are struggling, and remind them that their school counselors are there to help. Remember that often, being proactive with our mental health can be just as important as with our physical health. Setting up a few appointments with a counselor or therapist for the first weeks or months of school might be just the preventative help that your child needs. Or maybe just start looking into outside help options now, so that you are prepared if your child needs it later during the school year.
Bellingham’s Downtown / Waterfront Update
Bellingham’s more than 100 acres of Waterfront land has been tied up with industry until recently. The site is being transformed into a mixed-use space with public art and community access to the bay.
In 2013 the Port and Harcourt Bellingham LLC started the restoration project and as of this summer, Bellingham is thoroughly enjoying new businesses opening in the Granary Building, Waypoint Park, the Dirt Track Bicycle Park and Kulshan’s Track Side Beer Garden.
Under construction is the first phase of Condominiums and soon to come will be a hotel, offices and more public parks! My favorite part of all of this is how the historic icons remain and are showcased throughout! I hope you’ll make time to come visit- Downtown Bellingham having access to its waterfront is a dream come true!
Get in touch for information about future housing opportunities!
Tracie Gulit
(360) 201-6433
tracieg@windermere.com
